In the world of medicine, few conditions have seen such a dramatic global rise as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)—an umbrella term for Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis. As the number of Canadians living with IBD continues to climb, a pressing question faces patients, healthcare providers, and policymakers: how can we prepare for the future?
A groundbreaking study, published in Nature in April 2025, brings hope (and answers) by harnessing the power of artificial intelligence (AI) to predict the future burden of IBD in Canada and around the globe. This international effort, led by Dr. Gilaad Kaplan and Dr. Siew Ng, analyzed over a century’s worth of real-world data from 82 regions and more than 500 population-based studies, offering the most comprehensive picture yet of how IBD evolves across time and geography.
The power of prediction
Traditionally, researchers have tracked IBD by measuring two key numbers: incidence (new cases per year) and prevalence (total people living with the disease). But these numbers alone only tell part of the story. What if we could use them to forecast what’s coming next?
That’s exactly what the research team set out to do. By developing a machine learning classifier—a type of AI that can “learn” from data—they were able to automatically sort regions into four distinct “epidemiologic stages” of IBD. These stages reflect how the disease emerges (stage 1), accelerates (stage 2), and eventually plateaus as populations age and healthcare improves (stage 3).
For Canada, which has seen IBD rates soar since the mid-20th century, the model predicts the country is now in “stage 3” where the number of new cases is stabilizing, but the total number of people living with IBD keeps rising.
“By using machine learning and modeling techniques to analyze vast amounts of data, we can now anticipate how IBD will impact Canadians in the years to come,” says Dr. Gilaad Kaplan.
Stage 4: What is it and what could it mean for Canada?
By harnessing historical data and AI, the researchers identified the next chapter in the story of IBD, or stage 4. This stage marks the equilibrium point where the number of newly diagnosed individuals with IBD is balanced by the aging IBD population. While no country has reached this stage yet, recognizing stage 4 gives experts a crucial tool to anticipate when and how the impact of IBD might start to stabilize in Canada and around the world.
Why this matters for patients and policy
For people living with IBD, these predictions are more than just numbers. They’re a lifeline. The study’s findings help organizations like Crohn’s and Colitis Canada and government health agencies plan for the future, from ensuring enough specialists and medications to designing support programs for aging patients.
The AI-powered model also provides clear benchmarks for when regions transition between stages. This means healthcare leaders can spot early warning signs—such as a sudden rise in new cases among children or harmful lifestyle factors—and respond quickly with targeted interventions, education, and funding.
“Our approach sets the stage for proactive healthcare,” explains Dr. Gilaad Kaplan. “By identifying where each region stands, we can tailor resources and policies to address the unique needs of patients at every stage.”
Dr. Kaplan is a professor and gastroenterologist at the University of Calgary. He was also the co-lead of the 2023 Impact of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Canada report.
Want to learn more about how IBD is impacting Canadians? Read the report now.
Left to right: Gilaad Kaplan, MD, MPH; Joseph W. Windsor, PhD; Lindsay Hracs, PhD. Drs. Windsor and Hracs were the co-leads on the Nature article, and Dr. Kaplan was a co-senior author.